A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
